Ali Asker
2006-04-16 18:59:57 UTC
Sliding Backward
An ugly nationalist mood is brewing in Ankara, stalling once hailed reforms.
By Owen Matthews
Newsweek International
April 24, 2006 issue - Whatever happened to Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the
outspoken prime minister whose bold reforms brought Turkey to the very
threshold of Europe? He was a rebel who loosened the Turkish military's
stranglehold on political power. He brought cultural rights to the country's
Kurdish minority and overhauled a quasi-totalitarian legal system. But these
days? He sounds more and more like the reactionary old guard he came to
power vowing to overturn.
Consider some contrasts. Last August Erdogan electrified crowds in the
largely Kurdish city of Diyarbakir by telling them they were citizens with
equal rights. But earlier this month, after a week of rioting, he warned
Kurdish protesters, "Don't you dare test the power of the state." Last year
Erdogan defied nationalists at home by agreeing to open Turkish ports and
airports to Greek Cypriot vessels and aircraft, the price the European Union
demanded for starting EU accession talks. Now he's backpedaling. Erdogan
came to power preaching tolerance and human rights. Now he's repeatedly sued
cartoonists who lampoon him.
At home and abroad, Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party, or AKP,
have taken a sharp lurch toward old-fashioned Turkish nationalism-with
potentially dramatic implications for Ankara's EU bid as well as Turkey's
place in the world. Why? Erdogan's a politician. Elections are looming,
perhaps as soon as this November. If his mildly Islamic party is to do well,
it must stay in tune with the voters-and they seem to be shifting. Long
friendly toward the United States and hungry to join Europe, young Turks in
particular now seem to be turning toward parties critical of U.S. policy in
the region and EU interference at home. Last month researchers surveying
Turkey's 4.5 million 17- to 19-year-olds found that fully 20 percent said
they'd vote for the far-right Nationalist Action Party. At a recent
congress, NEWSWEEK has learned, Erdogan instructed party elders to play up
nationalism to get those voters back. "The party's religious credentials
will never be questioned, but their nationalist ones can be," says an AKP
source not authorized to speak on the record.
The recent unrest in the largely Kurdish southeast-which left at least 15
protesters dead, including four children-has been a turning point.
Revolutionary reforms pushed through by Erdogan (backed by strong EU
pressure) have given Turkey's Kurds more rights than they've had in
generations, including the opportunity to broadcast and teach in their own
language. Yet for his pains, Erdogan has a revolt on his hands that bears
uncomfortable similarities to the Palestinian intifada: crowds of children,
their faces covered with scarves, throwing stones at soldiers, as well as a
female suicide bomber who blew herself up in the northern town of Ordu.
Erdogan's reaction was quick and unequivocal. Security forces wouldn't
hesitate to act against women and children, he warned, if they allowed
themselves to be used as "pawns of terrorism."
A crackdown on the Kurds would be the death knell for Turkey's EU
aspirations. But growing numbers of Turks don't seem to care. Indeed, many
blame the EU for encouraging dangerous Kurdish national aspirations.
According to a recent poll conducted by Istanbul's Bilgi University, the
proportion of Turks in favor of joining the EU has fallen from 75 percent in
2004 to 63 percent today. Other surveys put the figure closer to 50 percent.
Turks also blame the United States for failing to close down military camps
of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, in northern Iraq. "You
tell the world that you have a war on terror and yet you haven't touched the
PKK, despite all the troops you have in the country?" says Kemal Koprulu,
the U.S.-educated founder of the ARI think tank in Istanbul.
Cyprus is another flash point. In a nod to Europe, the Turks last year
agreed to open Turkish ports to Cyprus on the understanding that the EU
would open up ports in Northern Cyprus as well. No go, EU Enlargement
Commissioner Olli Rehn now says. Turkey must open its ports before this
coming October's EU progress report or the whole process will turn into a
"train wreck." Trouble is, the Turks are so determined not to back down on
Cyprus that Ankara's already talking about suspending further EU
negotiations.
Unfortunately for Turkey, there's no shortage of Europeans who would like to
see just that. German Chancellor Angela Merkel is far less friendly toward
Turkish membership than her predecessor, Gerhard Schröder, was. Greece, once
an ardent champion, is turning cooler too. Athens' new foreign minister,
Dora Bakoyannis, warned earlier this month that "Turkey's EU process is not
a certain path."
Faced with a chill in Brussels, Erdogan has focused his energies on
developing Turkey's ties to the Islamic world. Last month he made a keynote
speech at the Arab League conference in Khartoum, and his foreign minister,
Abdullah Gul, hosted Hamas's Khaled Mashal and Iran's Foreign Minister Kamal
Kharrazi for talks. There have been numerous high-level visits by Syrian and
Iranian officials. To Washington's chagrin, Ankara has even flirted with
inviting the hard-line Iraqi Shiite leader Moqtada al-Sadr as part of what
Erdogan's chief foreign-affairs adviser, Ahmed Davutoglu, calls Turkey's
"zero problems with our neighbors'' policy.
Erdogan isn't about to abandon his drive to modernize Turkey, by any means,
and preparing the country for EU membership is part and parcel of that
effort. Indeed, joining Europe remains the Justice Party's best defense
against military hawks opposed to its efforts to dismantle the more
repressive apparatus of the state. Yet Erdogan is playing a dangerous game.
Perhaps he can balance the dictates of liberal economics, progressive
politics and old-time nationalism. But there are plenty of enemies, both at
home and in Europe, who would like to see him fail.
With Sami Kohen in Istanbul
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12335368/site/newsweek/
An ugly nationalist mood is brewing in Ankara, stalling once hailed reforms.
By Owen Matthews
Newsweek International
April 24, 2006 issue - Whatever happened to Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the
outspoken prime minister whose bold reforms brought Turkey to the very
threshold of Europe? He was a rebel who loosened the Turkish military's
stranglehold on political power. He brought cultural rights to the country's
Kurdish minority and overhauled a quasi-totalitarian legal system. But these
days? He sounds more and more like the reactionary old guard he came to
power vowing to overturn.
Consider some contrasts. Last August Erdogan electrified crowds in the
largely Kurdish city of Diyarbakir by telling them they were citizens with
equal rights. But earlier this month, after a week of rioting, he warned
Kurdish protesters, "Don't you dare test the power of the state." Last year
Erdogan defied nationalists at home by agreeing to open Turkish ports and
airports to Greek Cypriot vessels and aircraft, the price the European Union
demanded for starting EU accession talks. Now he's backpedaling. Erdogan
came to power preaching tolerance and human rights. Now he's repeatedly sued
cartoonists who lampoon him.
At home and abroad, Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party, or AKP,
have taken a sharp lurch toward old-fashioned Turkish nationalism-with
potentially dramatic implications for Ankara's EU bid as well as Turkey's
place in the world. Why? Erdogan's a politician. Elections are looming,
perhaps as soon as this November. If his mildly Islamic party is to do well,
it must stay in tune with the voters-and they seem to be shifting. Long
friendly toward the United States and hungry to join Europe, young Turks in
particular now seem to be turning toward parties critical of U.S. policy in
the region and EU interference at home. Last month researchers surveying
Turkey's 4.5 million 17- to 19-year-olds found that fully 20 percent said
they'd vote for the far-right Nationalist Action Party. At a recent
congress, NEWSWEEK has learned, Erdogan instructed party elders to play up
nationalism to get those voters back. "The party's religious credentials
will never be questioned, but their nationalist ones can be," says an AKP
source not authorized to speak on the record.
The recent unrest in the largely Kurdish southeast-which left at least 15
protesters dead, including four children-has been a turning point.
Revolutionary reforms pushed through by Erdogan (backed by strong EU
pressure) have given Turkey's Kurds more rights than they've had in
generations, including the opportunity to broadcast and teach in their own
language. Yet for his pains, Erdogan has a revolt on his hands that bears
uncomfortable similarities to the Palestinian intifada: crowds of children,
their faces covered with scarves, throwing stones at soldiers, as well as a
female suicide bomber who blew herself up in the northern town of Ordu.
Erdogan's reaction was quick and unequivocal. Security forces wouldn't
hesitate to act against women and children, he warned, if they allowed
themselves to be used as "pawns of terrorism."
A crackdown on the Kurds would be the death knell for Turkey's EU
aspirations. But growing numbers of Turks don't seem to care. Indeed, many
blame the EU for encouraging dangerous Kurdish national aspirations.
According to a recent poll conducted by Istanbul's Bilgi University, the
proportion of Turks in favor of joining the EU has fallen from 75 percent in
2004 to 63 percent today. Other surveys put the figure closer to 50 percent.
Turks also blame the United States for failing to close down military camps
of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, in northern Iraq. "You
tell the world that you have a war on terror and yet you haven't touched the
PKK, despite all the troops you have in the country?" says Kemal Koprulu,
the U.S.-educated founder of the ARI think tank in Istanbul.
Cyprus is another flash point. In a nod to Europe, the Turks last year
agreed to open Turkish ports to Cyprus on the understanding that the EU
would open up ports in Northern Cyprus as well. No go, EU Enlargement
Commissioner Olli Rehn now says. Turkey must open its ports before this
coming October's EU progress report or the whole process will turn into a
"train wreck." Trouble is, the Turks are so determined not to back down on
Cyprus that Ankara's already talking about suspending further EU
negotiations.
Unfortunately for Turkey, there's no shortage of Europeans who would like to
see just that. German Chancellor Angela Merkel is far less friendly toward
Turkish membership than her predecessor, Gerhard Schröder, was. Greece, once
an ardent champion, is turning cooler too. Athens' new foreign minister,
Dora Bakoyannis, warned earlier this month that "Turkey's EU process is not
a certain path."
Faced with a chill in Brussels, Erdogan has focused his energies on
developing Turkey's ties to the Islamic world. Last month he made a keynote
speech at the Arab League conference in Khartoum, and his foreign minister,
Abdullah Gul, hosted Hamas's Khaled Mashal and Iran's Foreign Minister Kamal
Kharrazi for talks. There have been numerous high-level visits by Syrian and
Iranian officials. To Washington's chagrin, Ankara has even flirted with
inviting the hard-line Iraqi Shiite leader Moqtada al-Sadr as part of what
Erdogan's chief foreign-affairs adviser, Ahmed Davutoglu, calls Turkey's
"zero problems with our neighbors'' policy.
Erdogan isn't about to abandon his drive to modernize Turkey, by any means,
and preparing the country for EU membership is part and parcel of that
effort. Indeed, joining Europe remains the Justice Party's best defense
against military hawks opposed to its efforts to dismantle the more
repressive apparatus of the state. Yet Erdogan is playing a dangerous game.
Perhaps he can balance the dictates of liberal economics, progressive
politics and old-time nationalism. But there are plenty of enemies, both at
home and in Europe, who would like to see him fail.
With Sami Kohen in Istanbul
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12335368/site/newsweek/
